Bibliography

Here are some references to books and articles that discuss topics relevant to Logical Decisions® and Decision Analysis. 

Books

Bell, David E., Raiffa, Howard, and Tversky, Amos, Decision Making: Descriptive, normative and prescriptive interactions. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1988

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A collection of articles covering many of the areas of research and controversy in decision analysis. Makes the distinction between descriptive (what do people do), normative (what should people do), and prescriptive (how can people make better decisions in practice) approaches to decision analysis.

Clemen, Robert T., Making Hard Decisions: An introduction to decision analysis PWS-Kent Publishing Co., Boston, 1991

Probably the best textbook on decision analysis. Primarily covers decision trees and related concepts, but some good discussion on multi-attribute problems.

Edwards, Ward, Ed., Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 1992

A series of papers resulting from a 1989 conference on utility theories. Generally on single measure rather than multi-measure. Confirms notion of "subjectively expected utility maximization" (SEU) as best normative tool but a poor descriptive tool.

French, Simon, Decision Theory: An introduction to the Mathematics of Rationality, Ellis Harwood, Ltd. Chichester, West Sussez, England, 1986

An excellent general decision analysis textbook. Strong sections on multi-attribute value and utility theory. Critical sections on several non-bayesian approaches including AHP. Currently out of print.

Hammond, John S., Keeney, Ralph L., and Raiffa, H., Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, Harvard Business School Press, 1999

A very accessible introduction to making better decisions by three pioneers in the decision analysis field.

Keeney, Ralph L., Siting Energy Facilities, Academic Press, New York, 1980

An applied presentation of multi-attribute utility theory, with examples from Dr. Keeney's time as head of Woodward-Clyde Consultants decision analysis group. Currently out of print.

Keeney, Ralph L., Value Focused Thinking: A path to creative decision making, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992

A more personal and general exposition of Keeney's approach to decision making. Argues the premise that values, goals and objectives should be articulated first and then decision opportunities that help reach those goals should be looked for.

Keeney, Ralph L. and Raiffa, Howard, Decisions With Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, John Wiley, New York, 1976

The classic exposition of multi-attribute utility theory. Very technical, but also contains many practical examples and tips.

Kirkwood, Craig W., Strategic Decision Making: Multiobjective Decision Analysis With Spreadsheets, Duxbury, Belmont, CA, 1996

An excellent introduction to the art and science of multiobjective decision analysis, with an emphasis on doing the needed calculations in spreadsheets. See Prof. Kirkwood's web site for more information.

Russo, J. Edward and Showmaker, Paul, J.H., Decision Traps: The ten barriaers to brilliant decision making and how to overcome them, Fireside, New York, 1990

The 10 Decision traps: 1. Plunging in 2. Frame Blindness 3. Lack of frame control 4. Overconfidence in your judgement 5. Shortsighted shortcuts 6. Shooting from the hip 7. Group failure 8. Fooling yourself about feedback 9. Not keeping track 10. Failure to audit your decision process. Currently out of print.

von Winterfeldt, Detloff and Edwards, Ward, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986

A good discussion of the behaviorial and psychological issues in decision analysis and also discussion of the "SMART" approach to preference assessment. Currently out of print.

Watson, Stephen R. and Buede, Dennis M., Decision Synthesis: The princilples and practice of decision analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1987

A good general overall of decision analysis of the "east coast" school. Good descriptions and comparisons of various multi-attribute methods and strategies, including AHP and decision conferencing.

Refereed Articles

Barron, F. Hutton and Barrett, Bruce E., "Decision Quality Using Ranked Attribute Weights", Management Science, Volume 42, No. 11, November 1996.

Describes various methods for estimating weights based on a rank order of the attributes' importances. Recommends the "Smarter" method used in Logical Decisions. The Smarter method is called the "Rank-Order Centroid" method in the article.

Bodily, Samuel E. "Introduction: The practice of Decision and Risk Analysis", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November-December, 1992

Bodily, S.E. " A Multiattribute Decision Analysis for the Level of Frozen Blood Utilization", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, SMC-7, 683-694, 1977

Bodily, S. "Police Sector Design Incorporating Preference of Interest Groups for Equality and Efficiency", Management Science, 24, 1301-1313, 1978

Borcherding, Katrin, Eppel, Thomas, and Von Winterfeldt, Detlof "Comparison of Weighting Judgements in Multiattribute Utility Measurement", Management Science, Vol 37, No. 12, December, 1991

An experimental comparison of the ratio, swing weighting, tradeoff and pricing out methods for weight assessments. Identifies difficulties with all methods. Recommends improvement of tradeoff method and its use in conjunction with the pricing out method.

Brown, Rex V., "The State of the Art of Decision Analysis: A personal Perspective", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November-December, 1992

Buede, Dennis M. and Bresnick, Terry A. "Applications of Decision Analysis to the Military Systems Acquisition Process", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November-December, 1992

Buede, D.M. "Structuring Value Attributes" Interfaes, 16, No. 2, 52-62, 1986

Covello, Vincent T., "Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods", Risk Analysis, Vol 7, No. 2, 1987

A general introduction to decision analysis and its potential application to risk analysis and management problems. Contrasts approach with cost-benefit analysis.

Crawford, D.M., Huntzinger, B.C., and Kirkwood, C.W. "Multiobjective Decision Analysis for Transmission Corridor Selection", Management Science, 24, 1700-1709, 1978

Dyer, James S., Fishburn, Peter C., Steuer, Ralph E., Wallenius, Jyrki, and Zionts, Stanley "Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiattribute Utility Theory: The next 10 years", Management Science, Vol. 38, No. 5, May, 1992

Dyer, J.S. and Lund, R.N. "Tinker Toys and Christmas Trees: Opening a New Merchandising Package for Amoco Oil CO.", Interfaces, 12(6), 38-52, 1982

Dyer, J.S. and Miles, R.F. "An Actual Application of Collective Choice Theory to the Selection of Trajectories for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project", Operations Research, 24, 220-244, 1976

Dyer, J. S. and Sarin, R.K. "Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions", Operations Research, 27, 810-822, 1979

A classic article establishing how to evaluate preferences when no uncertainties are involved and estanlishing the link between value functions (no uncertainty) and utility functions (include uncertainty).

Edwards, W. "How to Use Multiattribute Utility Measurement for Social Decision Making", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, SMC-7, 326-340, 1977

Ericksen, Stuart and Keller, L. Robin "A Multi-attribute Utility Approach to Weighing the Risks and Benefits of Pharmaceutical Agents", Medical Decision Making, 118-125, Vol .13, no. 2, Apr-Jun 1993

An application of MAUT to evaluating the utility of different dose levels of a drug for treating glaucoma.

Farmer, T.A. "Testing the Robustness of Multiattribute Utility Theory in an Applied Setting", Decision Sciences, 18, 178-193, 1987

Fryback, D.G. and Keeney, R.L. "Constructing a Complex Judgemental Model: An Index of Trauma Severity", Management Science, 29, 869-883, 1983

Golabi, K., Kirkwood, C.W., and Sicherman, A. "Selecting a Portfolio of Solar Energy Projects Using Multiattribute Preference Theory", Management Science, 27, 174-189, 1981

Gregory, Robin "Critical Thinking for Environmental Health Risk Education", Health Edcucation Quarterly, Vol 18(3): 273-284 (Fall 1991)

Presents an approach to help school age children think critically about environmental health risks.

Gregory, R. and Lichtenstein, S. "A Review of the High Level Nuclear Waste Repository Siting Analysis", Risk Analysis, 7, 219-223, 1987

Gregory, Robin, Lichtenstein, Sarah, and Slovic, Paul "Valuing Environmental Resources: A Constructive Approach", Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7:177-197 (1993)

Golabi, Kamal, Kulkarni, Ram, B., and Way, George B. "A Statewide Pavement Management System" Interfaces, 12, 6 December 1982

An application of MAUT and integer programming to the problem of which highway segments should receive maintenance each year.

Howard, Ronald A. "Heathens, Heretics, and Cults: The Religious Spectrum of Decision Aiding", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November-December, 1992

Keefer, Donald L. "Certainty Equivalents for Three-Point Discrete Distribution Approximations", Management Science, Vol. 40, No. 6, June, 1994

Describes and justifies the three point approximation used in Logical Decisions.

Keeney, R.L. "Evaluation of Proposed Pumped Storage Sites", Operations Research, 27, 48-64, 1979

Keeney, R.L. "An Analysis of the Portfolio of Sites to Characterize for Selecting a Nuclear Waste Repository", Risk Analysis, 7, 195-218, 1987

Keeney, Ralph L. "Siting Major Facilities Using Decision Analysis" Operational Research, 1981

A condensed version of the material presented in Keeney's Siting Energy Facilities book.

Keeney, Ralph L., "Using Values in Operations Research", Operations Research, Vol. 42, No. 5, September-October, 1994

Keeney, R.L., Lathrop, J.F., and Sicherman, A. "An Analysis of Baltimore Gas and Electric Company's Technology Choice", Operationsl Research, 34, 18-39 1986

Keeney, Ralph L. and McDaniels, Timothy L. "Value Focused Thinking about Strategic Decisions at BC Hydro", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November-December, 1992

Keeney, R.L., Sarin, R.K., and Winkler, R.L. "Analysis of Alternative National Ambient Carbon Monoxide Standards", Management Science, 30, 518-528, 1984

Keeney, R.L. and Sicherman, A. "Illustrative Comparison of One Utility's Coal and Nuclear Choices", Operations Research, 31, 50-83, 1983

Keeney, Ralph L. and Robillard, Gordon A. "Assessing and Evaluating Environmental Impacts at Proposed Nuclear Power Plant Sites", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 4, 153-166, 1977

Good examples of developing scales for environmental impact assessment.

Keeney, Ralph L. and Smith, Gary R. "Structuring Objectives for Evaluating Possible Nuclear Material Control and Accounting Regulations", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Vol SMC-12, No. 6, November/December 1982

Discusses the structuring of a goals hierarchy, development of measures and assessment of preferences for use in evaluating proposed regulations from the point of view of power plant employees and management.

Keller, L.R. and Ho, J.L. "Decision Problem Structuring: Generating Options", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 18, 715-728, 1988

Probably the best overview of methods for generating creative alternatives

Kirkwood, Craig W. "A Case History of Nuclear Power Plant Site Selection" Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol 33, pp 353-363, 1982

An application of the Woodward-Clyde MAUT approach to a nuclear power plant siting problem.

Kirkwood, Craig W. "An Overview of Methods for Applied Decision Analysis", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November-December, 1992

Kirkwood, Craig W. "Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970-1989", Operations Research, Vol. 39, No. 2, March-April, 1991

Kirkwood, Craig W. "Estimating the Impact of Uncertainty on a Deterministic Multiattribute Evaluation", Management Science, Vol. 38, No. 6, June 1992

Addresses the question of when it is necessary to convert a deterministic analysis to a probabilistic one.

Kusnick, Michael W. and Owen, Daniel "The Unifying Vision Process: Value beyond Traditional Decision Analysis in Multiple-Decision-Maker Environments", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November-December, 1992

Lathrop, John W. and Watson, Stephen R. "Decision Analysis for the Evaluation of Risk in Nuclear Waste Management", Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol 33, pp. 407 to 418, 1982

Presents a decision analytic approach for incorporating social values into analyses of nuclear waste management alternatives.

Lincoln, D.R. and Rubin, E.S. "Cross Media Environmental Impacts of Coal Fired Power Plants: An Approach Using Multiattribute Utility Theory", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, SMC-9, 285-289, 1979

Merkhofer, M.W. and Keeney, R.L. "A Multiattribute Utility Analysis of Alternate Sites for the Disposal of Nuclear Waste", Risk Analysis, 7, 173-194, 1987

Ozernoy, V.M., Smith, D.R., and Sicherman, A. "Evaluating Computerized Geographic Information Systems Using Decision Analysis", Interfaces, 11(5), 92-99, 1981

Pliskin, J.S., Shepard, D.S., and Feldman, S. "Utility Functions for Life Years and Health Status", Operations Research, 28, 206-224, 1980

Quaddis, M.A., Atkinson, D.J., and Levy, M. "An Application of Decision Conferencing to Strategic Planning for a Voluntary Organization", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November- December, 1992

Raisbeck, G. "How the Choice of Measures of Effectiveness Constrains Operational Analysis", Interfaces, 9, No. 4, 85-93, 1979

Ronen, B. and Pliskin, J.S. "Decision Analusis of Microelectronic Reliability: Optimal Design and Packaging of a Diode Array", Operations Research, 29,229-242, 1981

Sanchez de Rivera, D.P. "A Decision Analysis Model for a Serious Medical Problem", Management Science, 26, 707-718, 1980

Sarin, R.K, Sicherman, A., and Nair, K. "Evaluating Proposals Using Decision Analysis", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, SMC-8, 128-131, 1978

Smith, Gary R. "Textured Sets: An Approach to Aggregation Problems With Multiple Concerns", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, April 1980.

Presents an approach for using a simplified version of the multiplicative utility fuction for standardized (questionnaire) evaluations.

Silverman, Barry G. "unifying Expert Systems and the Decision Sciences", Operations Research, Vol. 42, May-June, 1994.

Torrance, G.W., Boyle, M.H., and Harwood, S.P. "application of Multiattribute Utility Theory to Measure Social Preferences for Health States", Operations Research, 30, 1043-1069, 1982

Torrance, George W., Boyle, Michael H., and Horwood, Sargent P. "Application of Multi- attribute Utility Theory to Measure Social Preferences for Health States" Operations Research, Vol 30, No. 6, November/December 1982.

A very interesting application of MAUT to health problems.

Ulvila, J.W, and Snider, W.D. "Negotiation of International Oil Tanker Standared: An Application of Multiattribute Value Theory", Operations Research, 28, 81-96, 1980

Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice", Science, Vol 211, 30 January, 1981

A seminal article presenting how the framing of a problem can cause reversals of preference.

Vari, Anna and Vecsenyi, Janos "Experiences With Decision Conferencing in Hungary", Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, November-December, 1992

von Nitzsch, Rudger and Weber, Martin "The Effect of Attribute Ranges on Weights in Multiattribute Utility Measurements", Management Science, Vol. 39, No. 8, August 1993

Westop, F.E. and Carlsen, A.J. "Ranking Hydroelectric Power Projects with Multicriteria Decision Analysis", Interfaces, 18(4), 36-48, 1988

Westop, F.E. and Carlsen, A.J. "Ranking Hydroelectric Power Projects with Multicriteria Decision Analysis", Interfaces, 18(4), 36-48, 1988

Other Articles

Barron, F. Hutton and Barrett, Bruce E. "Decision Quality Using Ranked and Partially Ranked Attribute Weights" Dept. of Management Science and Statistics, College of Commerce and Business Administration, University of Alabama, unpublished manuscript, undated

Presents the ideas and math behind the SMARTER method.

Corner, James L. and Kirkwood, Craig W. "Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970-1989" Arizona Dept. of Decision and Information Systems, Technical Report DIS 89/90-4 October, 1989

A listing of published decision analysis applications.

Edwards, Ward and Barron, F. Hutton "SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved simle methods for multiattribute utility assessment", Social Science Research Institute, Univ. of Southern Calif., unpublished, undated manuscript

Describes and motivates the SMART and SMARTER methods.

Farquhar, Peter H. "Utility Assessment Methods", Working Paper 81-5, Graduate School of Administration, University of California, Davis, May, 1982

A discussion of methods for assessing single measure utility functions.

Golabi, Kamal, Kirkwood, Craig W., and Sicherman, Alan "Selecting a Portfolio of Projects Using Decision Analysis", Dept. of Industrial and Operations Engineering, Univ. of Michigan, Technical Report 78-5, November, 1978

Outlines a method for selecting from a group of proposed projects using MAUT and integer programming.

Kirkwood, Craig W. "System Analysis for Siting Nuclear Power Plants: A Case History" Woodward-Clyde Consultants unpublished working paper, undated

An application of the Woodward-Clyde MAUT approach to a nuclear power plant siting problem. A working version of the 1982 Journal of the Operational Research Society paper.

Woodward-Clyde Consultants "Repository Horizon Identification Report" Woodward-Clyde Consultants unpublished report, August 1983

An application of the Woodward-Clyde approact to MAUT for evaluating the suitability of basalt layers at the Hanford nuclear center for a nuclear waste repository. Contains an interesting example of a multiplicative utility function for construction difficulty.

Allett, E.J. "Environmental Impact Assessment and Decision Analysis", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 37, 901-910, 1986

Anandalingam, G. "A Multiagent, Multiattribute Approach for Conflict Resolution in Acid Rain Impact Mitigation", IEEE Tranactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 19,1142-1153, 1989

Anandalingam, G. "A Multiple Criteria Decision Analytic Approach for Evaluating Acid Rain Policy Choices", European Journal of Operations Research, 29, 336-352, 1987

Anandalingam, G.and Olsson, C.E. "A multi-Stage Multi-Attribute Decision Model for Project Selection", European Journal of Operations Research, 43, 271-283, 1989

Belton, V. "The Use of a Simple Multiple-Criteria Model to Assist in Selection from a Shortlist", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 36, 265-274, 1985

Brooks, D.G. and Kirkwood, C.W. "Decision Analysis to Select a Microcomputer Networking Strategy: A Procedure and a Case Study", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 29-32, 1988

Brownlow, S.A. and Watson, S.R. "Structuring Multiattribute Value Hierarchies", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 38, 309-317, 1987

Dyer, J.S. and Lorber, H.W., The Multiattribute Evaluation of Program-Planning Contractors", Omega, 10, 673-678, 1982

Hobbs, B.F. "A Comparison of Weighting Methods in Power Plant Siting", Decision Science, 11, 725-737, 1980

Keefer, D. L. and Kirkwood, C.W. "A Multiobjectiive Decision Analysis: Budget Planning for Product Engineering", Journal of Operational Research Society, 29, 435-442, 1978

Keeney, R.L. "The Art of Assessing Multiattribute Utility Functions", Orgn. Behavior and Human Performance, 19, 267-310, 1977

Keeney, R.L. and Ozernoy, V. "An Illustrative Analysis of Ambient Carbon Monoxide Standards", Journal of The Operational Research Society, 33, 365-375, 1982

Keeney, R.L., Renn, O., and von Winterfeldt, D., "Structuring Germany's Energy Objectives" Energy Policy, 15, 352-362, 1987

Keeney, R.L. and Lilien, G.L. "New Industrial Product Design and Evaluation Using Multiattribute Value Analysis", Journal of Product Innovation Management, 4, 185-198, 1987

Lock, A.R. "A strategic Business Decision With Multiple Criteria: The Bally Men's Shoe Problem", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 33, 327-332, 1982

Pliskin, J.S., Ronin, B., and Feldman, S. "Choosing an Electronic Cardiac Pacemaker: A Decision Analysis", European Journal of Operations Research, 32, 333-339, 1987

Ronin, B., Pliskin, J.S., and Feldman, S. "Balancing the Failure Modes in the Electronic Circuit of a Cardiac Pacemaker: A Decision Analysis", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 35, 379-387, 1984

van Steen, J.F.J. "A Methodology for Aiding Hazardous Materials Transportation Decisions", European Journal of Operational Research, 32, 231-244, 1987

Zalkind, D.L. and Shactman, R.H. "A Method to Determine a Non-Economic Personal Value of Life", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 34, 145-153, 1983